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China-Taiwan Dispute Primer
Assessment: The freeze between China and Taiwan appears to be thawing with the election of Taiwan’s new President Ma Ying-jeou and his clear change of attitude towards relations with the mainland. Ma’s task will not be easy. He must continue to toe the line between China’s demand for negotiations in accordance with Beijing’s ‘one-China’ policy, and at the same time promote Taiwan’s international status and sovereignty. Ma’s diplomatic tightrope will continue to be exacerbated by Beijing’s booming economy and rapid military expansion and modernization. Militarily, although declining to give realistic explanations for its rapid modernization, China has aggressively shed its low profile policy, while Taiwan is actively seeking to finalize its purchase of defensive military hardware from the U.S. With Taiwan having been pushed into relative diplomatic isolation under former President Chen’s flirt with declaring independence, Beijing has indicated that through the resumption of cross-strait consultations, discussion on Taiwan’s participation in international activities might become a reality sooner rather than later.
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